A hot year, but not a record-hot year, was 2025. After the extreme year of 2024, in which thermometers averaged 10.9 degrees Celsius, 2025 offered a breather at exactly 10 degrees. But “climate change is the reality of our time,” says Tobias Fuchs of the German Weather Service DWD, whose climate annual report was presented on Wednesday.
Climate change becomes noticeable when looking at the number of extreme days: On eleven days, weather stations recorded over 35°C on average for the year, which is 150 percent more than between 1961 and 1990. The number of days on which the thermometer never rose above 0°C, by contrast, fell by 65 percent to nine.
For the first time, the DWD has also produced forecasts for the consequences of global warming for Germany. They begin with a scenario of global warming ranging from 2.8 to 4.6 degrees by the end of the century — currently expected are 2.1 to 3.3 degrees. Other scenarios are to follow later.
According to their first simulation, by the end of the century Germany will be much hotter overall, with an annual average between two and six degrees warmer than between 1961 and 1990. “Especially in the south and east, there will be an increase in heat waves and tropical nights,” says Fuchs. These are especially a significant health risk for older people. “That means that in municipalities the need for heat action plans, more green and water surfaces will rise.”
The need for heat-action plans, and for more green and water surfaces, will rise.
Tobias Fuchs, Meteorologist
Rising Drought Is Becoming a Problem
How rainfall amounts will develop in the DWD’s rather pessimistic scenario is less certain. In winter and spring, for example, Saxony could become slightly drier, while Lower Saxony could become wetter. In summer and autumn the picture is even more varied: while the west could become drier, the models forecast the highest increases in rainfall in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
“Both drier and wetter conditions can pose major challenges, for example in irrigation planning,” says Fuchs. In the coming months the DWD intends to recalculate more scenarios and refine forecasts, for example, for differences between central uplands and the surrounding flatlands. In addition, forecasts should cover not only temperature and precipitation but also the number of hot days, the intensity of heavy rainfall, and the duration of drought periods.
The increasing drought is already becoming a central problem, says the DWD meteorologist Andreas Becker. All sectors that rely on a favorable and reliable water supply are coming under economic and ecological pressure.
Already spring 2025 was one of the driest ever measured. “Fortunately, a very wet July ended the record drought in time and prevented substantial damage to agriculture,” Becker reports.
Meteorologist: “No Trend Reversal”
The heat waves of the past year are described by the DWD as “short, but to the point” — according to the Robert Koch Institute, over the summer a total of between 2,100 and 3,700 predominantly older people died from heat-related causes, somewhat fewer than in previous years. “What was exceptional was especially the geographically widespread high intensity,” Becker says. 435 of Germany’s 453 weather stations observed temperatures above 30°C in the summer of 2025, and 285 observed above 35°C.
Overall, the 10 degrees Celsius average measured in Germany for the year is slightly below the trend. “However, that does not change the fact that Germany has already warmed by about 2.5 degrees,” Becker notes. Every single month was warmer than the 1961–1990 average. Globally, 2025 was the third-hottest year ever recorded.
“Individual years without new records are not a trend reversal,” Becker warns. Long-term warming continues, as do the rise in climatic risks such as drought, heat, and water scarcity. “Climate protection and climate adaptation remain central tasks.”
For the coming months, the DWD expects a warmer summer. The probability is 71 percent for more than 8.5 days with temperatures above 30°C in the summer and 81 percent for warmer summer months than the average of the last 30 years. How much it will rain, however, models cannot yet predict.
