IN 30 SECONDS
- What happened? The Greek Migration Minister has warned that up to half a million migrants are prepared in Libya to cross the Mediterranean toward Europe.
- Who is behind? The human trafficking networks that operate in unstable Libya, exploiting the lack of state control and the precarious living conditions.
- What impact does it have? A possible new massive migratory wave that would test European asylum policy, with Greece, Italy, and Spain as the main entry doors.
Greece has raised the alert level in the central Mediterranean. According to statements by the Greek Migration Minister, reported by the Russian agency RT, around 500,000 people are in Libya ready to undertake the maritime crossing to European shores. The statements have set off alarms in Brussels and in the capitals of southern EU countries. Spain, although not a primary destination for those leaving the eastern Maghreb, watches with concern the possible saturation of routes and the domino effect on its own reception systems.
An alert that strains the seams of the Migration and Asylum Pact
The Atenas warning comes at a moment when the European Union is trying to close the last gaps of the Migration and Asylum Pact, approved in 2024 but with a very uneven implementation. The warning of half a million people in transit fully challenges the capacity of the compulsory solidarity mechanisms: southern EU states have been denouncing for years that transfers from first-entry countries are insufficient. In 2025, according to data from the European Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex), irregular arrivals across the central Mediterranean exceeded 120,000, 35% more than the previous year. The figure of 500,000 potential migrants would quadruple that volume.
Frontex has strengthened the deployment of air and naval assets as part of the operation Themis, but EU sources acknowledge that there is no device prepared for migratory pressure of that magnitude. “The message from Athens is a call for help and, at the same time, a way to pressure for more funds and relocations,” say diplomatic sources familiar with the negotiations in the Council to this newsroom.
The humanitarian dimension is equally urgent. Libya remains a hostile environment for migrants, with detention centers where abuses, torture, and forced labor are repeatedly documented. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) has repeatedly called for the creation of safe corridors, but the political fragmentation of the country —with two rival governments— makes any plan moot.
The Libyan route: a multimillion-dollar business for the mafias and a political tool for other actors
Smuggling networks have turned instability into a multi-million business. It is estimated that a crossing by dinghy from the beaches of Tripoli, Zawiya or Zuara costs between 1,500 and 3,000 euros per person, according to IOM. That would yield, in a scenario of 500,000 crossings, a criminal purse that could exceed 1 billion euros. A large part of that money feeds local militias and armed groups, which in turn condition the governance of the country.
Beyond the criminal factor, migration from Libya has a geopolitical reading that Moscow does not miss. The RT agency, precisely the one that disseminated the Greek minister’s statements, has amplified the narrative that Europe is unable to manage its borders. The Kremlin uses migratory flows as a tool of hybrid pressure —as it did in 2015 with the Syrian route and in 2021 with the Belarusian border— to destabilize its Western neighbors. That the alert comes from Greece, a NATO member and a key partner in the eastern Mediterranean, adds another layer of friction.
The sum of 500,000 people willing to cross and an EU without a clear operational response places the central Mediterranean at the hottest point on the European security agenda.
Italy, with its shores much more exposed to the central route, has already announced that it will convene an extraordinary meeting of the so-called Mediterranean Contact Group. The Prime Minister has stressed that “we cannot leave Greece or the frontline countries alone.” Meanwhile, the Spanish government has avoided making official statements, although within the Interior Ministry they are following the evolution of sea rescues with attention.
Balance of Power
What is at stake behind the Greek alert is not only a migratory issue. It is the European Union’s ability to maintain cohesion on its southern flank at a moment of maximum budgetary strain and growing influence of external actors. Irregular migration has become a tool of political erosion that far-right parties successfully exploit in almost all Member States. Each new crisis weakens confidence in the common project and gives wings to those who advocate restoring internal borders.
For Spain, the threat is double. On one hand, because any collapse in migration management in Italy or Greece reduces the already scarce European resources available for the southern border. The funds allocated to Morocco, the Sahel, or the Canary Islands compete with the urgencies of the central Mediterranean. On the other hand, because the foreseeable increase in arrivals to Lampedusa or Sicily will end up pushing the mafias to reactivate supplementary routes toward the Strait of Gibraltar and the Andalusian coast. The recent uptick of dinghy landings in the Strait in 2026 already points in that direction.
The closest precedent goes back to the 2015 crisis, when more than a million refugees —mainly Syrians— arrived in Europe and overwhelmed asylum systems. That experience showed that voluntary solidarity does not work and that binding mechanisms are needed. The Migration Pact was meant to be the answer, but it was designed in times of relative calm. The question now is whether it will withstand the test by Libya.
Our reading is that the EU has financial and diplomatic tools to manage this push — support for the Libyan Coast Guard has been key so far — but lacks the political will to use them proactively. Inaction has a cost: every migrant who drowns at sea, every Libyan detention camp that overflows, increases moral and electoral pressure on governments. In this context, Athens’ announcement may be only the prologue to a very complicated summer on the southern European border.
