IN 30 SECONDS
- What happened? Iran has regained operational control of 30 of its 33 missile bases in the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz, according to leaked U.S. intelligence.
- Who is behind? The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains 90% of its land-to-sea and anti-ship missile arsenal ready to strike in the area.
- What impact does it have? It contradicts Trump’s account of a ‘total destruction’ of Iran’s military capability and reactivates the risk of the strait’s closure, through which around 20% of the world’s oil transits.
Iran retains operational control of most of its missile bases in the Strait of Hormuz, with 90% of its anti-ship and land-to-sea missiles ready for an imminent attack. The information, drawn from a U.S. intelligence assessment leaked to The New York Times, directly contradicts the president’s claims that Iran’s military capabilities had been ‘destroyed’.
Thirty bases operational that contradict the White House narrative
Of the 33 missile facilities that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains along the Persian Gulf coast and the Gulf of Oman, 30 have regained full operability. The data come from a classified assessment by the U.S. intelligence community dated May 7, to which the New York Times has had access. It notes that the C-802, C-704 and Noor missiles — local copies of the American Harpoon — have been relocated to better-camouflaged positions and have launch readiness times of less than 90 minutes.
The network of bases covers both flanks of the strait: from Bandar Abbas to the island of Qeshm, with forward positions in Jask and Kuhmobarak. Each of them houses at least one medium-range anti-ship missile battery, suicide drones Shahed-136, and anchorable naval mines. The total number of prepared vectors, according to the report, exceeds 3,200.
The figure represents a 40% increase over the Pentagon’s public estimates from March 2025. Back then, the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) certified the destruction of 65% of Iran’s missile capabilities after the retaliatory bombardments ordered by Trump. The new assessment concedes that those attacks caused only temporary damage and that Tehran has rapidly rebuilt its positions, partly aided by Russian technical assistance.
Trump insists on the ‘total destruction’ while the Pentagon stays silent
The president Trump reiterated this Tuesday that ‘Iran no longer has missiles capable of threatening our ships’ during a briefing at Andrews Air Force Base. His statements clash with the intelligence report and with the silence maintained by the Pentagon itself, which has declined to comment on the leak ‘for reasons of national security’.
Diplomatic sources consulted by Moncloa.com assure that the Joint Chiefs of Staff are reviewing contingency plans for the Gulf and that the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford has delayed its departure from the Mediterranean in case it is necessary to reinforce naval presence in the area. If Iranian operability is confirmed, American warships transiting the strait would do so under real risk of attack with supersonic missiles Yakhont, of which Iran possesses a domestic version called Khalij Fars.
Twenty percent of the world’s oil still depends on a narrow passage that Iran can close in a matter of hours.
Balance of Power
The contradiction between the presidential rhetoric and the on-the-ground reality opens a dangerous rift in the Washington-Moscow-Brussels axis. While the White House insists on a victory that has not occurred, the Kremlin watches closely: any further tension in the Gulf raises crude prices and benefits Russian coffers, which have been hard hit by the G7 price cap. The EU, for its part, has reacted with extreme caution. The High Representative, Kaja Kallas, limited herself to calling for ‘restraint’ and recalled that Operation Agénor — the European naval surveillance mission in the strait — remains deployed with reduced means.
For Spain, the impact would be immediate. A partial closure of the strait would push Brent crude above $130 per barrel, according to a scenario modeled by the Elcano Institute in 2025. Spain’s dependence on oil transiting through Hormuz — almost 40% of total imports — makes the crisis a direct threat to the national economy. The base at Rota, home to four AEGIS destroyers of the Sexta Flota, would effectively become the starting point for any retaliatory operation; a role that Moncloa has always avoided publicly.
The immediate reading is that Iran has returned to the nuclear-negotiation table from a position of strength. The precedent of the 1988 Operation Religious Mantis — when the U.S. Navy destroyed a large portion of the Iranian fleet in response to mine-laying — remains embedded in the manuals of both general staffs. Only then Tehran did not possess anti-ship ballistic missiles capable of hitting an AEGIS destroyer. Now it does. The window for diplomatic de-escalation narrows: the next round of talks in Vienna, scheduled for May 22, appears decisive.
