IN 30 SECONDS
- What happened? Trump has ordered the resumption of bombings against Iran after the collapse of the ceasefire. The operation Project Freedom is reactivated against the remaining 25% of Iranian military targets.
- Who is behind it? The President of the United States, with the backing of his national security team, considers the diplomatic path unsustainable.
- What impact will it have? Immediate escalation in the Middle East, risk of closing the Strait of Hormuz, extreme volatility in oil prices and pressure on European allies to line up.
Donald Trump has given the green light to resuming attacks against Iran. The ceasefire negotiated weeks ago is waning, and the American president, according to White House sources cited by Axios, is convening his national security council this Monday to reactivate the Project Freedom operation. The pending objectives — 25% of the military infrastructure — are back in the crosshairs.
The collapse of the ceasefire and the order to resume bombardments
The truce reached in Geneva has barely lasted three weeks. Trump described the situation as “life support” and blamed Tehran for not complying with the terms agreed. We have consulted European diplomatic sources who confirm the total breakdown of communication channels. The Republican president, far from the caution of his first term, bets on force as the only pressure option.
The Pentagon has already deployed additional assets in the region: Arleigh Burke-class destroyers equipped with Tomahawk missiles and CENTCOM F-35 fighters. The executive order signed in April authorized up to 90 days of operations, but the ceasefire had suspended them. Now, the White House understands that the window is closing and that each week of delay allows Iran to reinforce its air defenses and relocate critical assets.
The remaining military targets and Iran’s response capacity
The Project Freedom operation was designed to neutralize 75% of the Revolutionary Guard’s offensive capability. However, the remaining 25% includes Shahab-3 ballistic missile silos, underground command centers and enrichment plants that Iran has protected under S-300 systems acquired from Russia. An attack on these targets, according to an IISS report, carries a real risk of asymmetric escalation: retaliation with proxy groups in Iraq and Syria, cyberattacks against European critical infrastructure, and, above all, the blockage of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the Russian channel RT, Trump is weighing two options: a surgical 72-hour campaign with cruise missiles or a more extensive wave with B-2 bombers. Intelligence sources contacted by this newsroom indicate that the decision will be taken this week. The markets already price it in: Brent crude has risen 6% at the Asian market open.
The ceasefire is on “life support” and the White House seems determined to resume the attacks before Iran reconstitutes its defense capabilities and diplomacy is definitively buried.
Balance of Power
Washington’s move breaks the détente dynamic that Brussels and Moscow were trying to consolidate. The European Union, divided between guaranteeing energy supply and its traditional commitment to diplomacy, watches with impotence as a new escalation unfolds. The EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs warned yesterday that “any unilateral action jeopardizes collective security,” but without the capacity to influence a White House that has emptied the multilateral channels of substance.
For Spain, the crisis takes on a directly economic and security dimension. Dependence on Gulf hydrocarbons remains high in the short term, despite diversification in recent years. The Ministry of Defense continues to monitor developments from the Operations Command, with particular attention to possible hybrid threats in the Mediterranean. Moreover, the deployment of the frigate Blas de Lezo in Operation Aspides, in the Indian Ocean, requires heightened precautions in case Iran decides to challenge Western naval presence.
The long-term outlook is darker. If the Project Freedom operation is reactivated without a regional stabilization plan, the power vacuum will benefit China, the main buyer of Iranian crude and increasingly active in parallel mediation. We observe a repetition of the 2020 pattern, but with an even more fragile geopolitical context: the war in Ukraine, NATO’s weakening due to Trump’s demands, and China’s rising influence. The next United Nations Security Council session, scheduled for Thursday, will be a thermometer of the strategic loneliness into which Washington is slipping.
